[gradsusr] How to calculate Equitable Threat Score (ETS)

[Maat, Herbert ter]

Dear Suman,

My suggestion would be build a contingency table and then import the contingency table into a spreadsheet program. I have created a script to make a contingency table. You can find the most important part of this script below.

Kind regards,
Herbert ter Maat

* modeldata
'use d:/UserData/Herbert/Projects/KvK/KKF/FutureWeather/GrADS/fw38-LS-2006-07-15-000000-g3.ctl'
* Observation data
filen1='d:\UserData\Herbert\Projects\KvK\KKF\FutureWeather\DATA_WUR\Rain2Grads\PrecipObs_200608_day.dat'

t0=9
rok=0
* Threshold value of detection
thres=0.5
result=read(filen1)

'set lat 51.5'
‘set lon 5’
'set gxout print'

while (rok=0)
    'set t 't0
    result=read(filen1)
    rok=sublin(result,1)
    rok=subwrd(rok,1)
    if (rok!=0); say 'end of file'; break; endif

    lin=sublin(result,2)
    stat2=subwrd(lin,3)
    say stat2
    t1=t0
    'set t 't1
    a=0
    b=0
    c=0
    d=0
    j=1
    stat1=stat2
    lat=subwrd(lin,2)
    lon=subwrd(lin,1)
    while (j < 30)
      value1=subwrd(lin,j+4)

      t1=t1+24
      'set t 't1

      'd gr2stn(totpcp-totpcp(t-24),'lon','lat')'
      reslin2=sublin(result,3)
      value2=subwrd(reslin2,1)

      j=j+1
      say j
      if(value1>=thres & value2>=thres); a=a+1; endif
      if(value1>=thres & value2<thres); c=c+1; endif
      if(value1<thres & value2>=thres); b=b+1; endif
      if(value1<thres & value2<thres); d=d+1; endif
    endwhile
    record = stat1','a','b','c','d
    res = write(contingency.txt,record)


endwhile


From: gradsusr-bounces at gradsusr.org [mailto:gradsusr-bounces at gradsusr.org] On Behalf Of Suman Maity
Sent: vrijdag 10 oktober 2014 19:08
To: GrADS Users Forum; regcnet
Subject: [gradsusr] How to calculate Equitable Threat Score (ETS)

Dear all
This is Suman Maity from Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India. Frequently we are validating our model output with some observation datasets. For the validation purpose people are using different skill scores. Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is such a score for verification. My query is how to calculate that? for example I have 2007 (June-July-August-September) model simulated daily rainfall data and GPCP rainfall data. If I want to calculate the ETS then how to do that?
Please help in this regard. Any suggestion will be highly appreciable.
Regards
'S Maity'
*******************************************************
Suman Maity
Research Scholar
Center for Ocean, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences(CORAL)
Indian Institute Of Technology Kharagpur.

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