GFS Ensemble high resolution in Nomad5

Mon Jul 31 12:03:09 EDT 2006

The ensemble members describe the same forecast period
on the same planet, are therefore identical in their intention.
But each member underwent slight perturbations of the initial state of
the forecast. The spread in the ensemble, the differences between each
member, give an indication of the uncertainty in:

-weather prediction
-model skill.

The art for you is to figure, how to present the ensemble results
as an expression of the points above. The price goes to those
who foresee which part of the ensemble adds to the error of the forecast
and to those who interpret the ensemble to the best effect.

Good Luck!

On Mon, 2006-07-31 at 16:51, Christian Gonzalez wrote:
> Yes
> gec00_00z
> gep01_00z
> gep02_00z
> gep03_00z
> gep04_00z
> gep05_00z
> gep06_00z
> gep07_00z
> gep08_00z
> gep09_00z
> gep10_00z
> gep11_00z
> gep12_00z
> gep13_00z
> gep14_00z
>
> For the 06Z, 12Z and 18Z models have the same number of files.
> Any suggestion where I can find some information about the
> differences, if any, between this files?
>
> On 7/31/06, bernd.becker at metoffice.gov.uk
> <bernd.becker at metoffice.gov.uk> wrote:
>         15 ensemble members?
>
>         On Mon, 2006-07-31 at 16:26, Christian Gonzalez wrote:
>         > Hello,
>         > Could anyone tell me what are the differences between gec00
>         y gep01,
>         > gep02, ..., gep14 for a selected hour?
>         > http://nomad5.ncep.noaa.gov:9090/dods/gens/archive/
>         > Thanks a lot.
>         >
>         >
>         > Christian Gonzalez
>         > CEPROPA
>         > Argentina
>         --
>         Bernd Becker   The Monthly Outlook
>         Met Office  FitzRoy Road  Exeter   Devon EX1 3PB  United
>         Kingdom
>         Tel.: +44 (0) 1392 884511 Fax: +44 (0)870 900 5050
>         E-mail:bernd.becker at metoffice.gov.uk
>         -  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
--
Bernd Becker   The Monthly Outlook
Met Office  FitzRoy Road  Exeter   Devon EX1 3PB  United Kingdom
Tel.: +44 (0) 1392 884511 Fax: +44 (0)870 900 5050
E-mail:bernd.becker at metoffice.gov.uk -  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk